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Strategic Systems Intelligence · SSIP

National crude oil production volume

National crude production across the Dar and Nile blends as published in the temporal observation register, in barrels per day.

Unit: barrels per day · Measurement: FLOW · Scope: NATIONAL · Comparability group: CRUDE_NATIONAL_PRODUCTION_BPD_REGISTER

What this is not

Almost every serious error in operational data is a category error rather than an arithmetic one. These are the things this indicator shares a unit with and must never be combined with.

  • Gross wellhead volume including water cut and line fill, which the Ministry publishes separately and which is higher.
  • Net fiscalised export lifted at the terminal, which the operating consortium meters separately and which is lower.
  • Export flow as recorded in the change register, which is a third figure on a third basis.
  • Revenue. A barrel produced is not a barrel sold at a known price.

How current a reading has to be

Current within 60 days, usable within 180 days, measured against the 2026-09-23 build rather than against the time you read this page. A static deployment cannot re-age itself, so the build date is the honest anchor.

Crude production and export volumes are published on monthly-to-quarterly institutional cycles. A two-month-old figure is the most recent figure that exists; calling it stale would mean calling the entire published series stale.

Readings held (6)

This series has 4 breaks longer than its usable window (2024-03-31 to 2024-09-30, 183 days; 2024-09-30 to 2025-03-31, 182 days; 2025-03-31 to 2025-09-30, 183 days; 2025-09-30 to 2026-03-31, 182 days). Nothing is known about the indicator during those periods, nothing is interpolated across them, and no line is drawn through them.

  • 124,000 barrels per day — observed 2026-08-25, 29 days before the 2026-09-23 build
    Source: MoP / Operating Consortium · Upper Nile & Unity States (named only — no coordinate held) · Current · ANNOUNCED · evidence ev-00419
  • 118,000 barrels per day — observed 2026-03-31, 176 days before the 2026-09-23 build
    Source: MoP Ledger · Upper Nile & Unity States (named only — no coordinate held) · Aging · ANNOUNCED · evidence ev-00417
  • 110,000 barrels per day — observed 2025-09-30, 358 days before the 2026-09-23 build
    Source: MoP / Consortium Telemetry · Upper Nile & Unity States (named only — no coordinate held) · Stale · ANNOUNCED · evidence ev-00415
  • 88,000 barrels per day — observed 2025-03-31, 541 days before the 2026-09-23 build
    Source: MoP / DPOC · Upper Nile & Unity States (named only — no coordinate held) · Stale · ANNOUNCED · evidence ev-00413
  • 68,000 barrels per day — observed 2024-09-30, 723 days before the 2026-09-23 build
    Source: MoP / Consortium Telemetry · Upper Nile & Unity States (named only — no coordinate held) · Stale · ANNOUNCED · evidence ev-00411
  • 145,000 barrels per day — observed 2024-03-31, 906 days before the 2026-09-23 build
    Source: Ministry of Petroleum · Upper Nile & Unity States (named only — no coordinate held) · Stale · ANNOUNCED · evidence ev-00409

What SSIP says about it

  • National crude oil production volume: 124,000 barrels per day, recorded 2026-08-25 by MoP / Operating Consortium. Inside this indicator's 60-day currency window as of 2026-09-23.
    Rule: Take the most recent dated observation bound to this indicator and classify its age against the indicator's own freshness policy (60 days current, 180 days usable — Crude production and export volumes are published on monthly-to-quarterly institutional cycles. A two-month-old figure is the most recent figure that exists; calling it stale would mean calling the entire published series stale.).
    Does not establish: That the condition still holds today. This is the most recent reading SSIP holds, not a statement about 2026-09-23. Gross wellhead volume including water cut and line fill, which the Ministry publishes separately and which is higher.
  • The National crude oil production volume series has 4 breaks longer than its 180-day usable window; the largest runs 183 days from 2024-03-31 to 2024-09-30. Charts of this indicator break the line across those periods rather than drawing through them.
    Rule: Report consecutive published points separated by more than the indicator's usable window as a break in the series. Nothing is interpolated across a break and no line is drawn through one.
    Does not establish: What the indicator did during the break. Nothing is known about that period, and a straight line between two points is a drawing convention rather than a measurement.

What SSIP does not hold

  • The most recent point in this series carries a value identical to the net export figure recorded elsewhere while being labelled national output. SSIP flags that for review rather than relabelling it.

How to read this

Every figure on this page carries an evidence state — Verified, Operational, Announced, Estimated, Inferred, Disputed, Simulated, Reference or Unavailable — and each state has a stated definition. SSIP does not present an estimate as an observation, and it does not record a missing value as zero.

Read the methodology · Open the evidence ledger · See declared gaps

Related

All operational indicators · Operating picture · Coverage · Recorded changes · Evidence ledger

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Cite, check and correct

Cite as: “National crude oil production volume”. Strategic Systems Intelligence. https://ssintelligence.online/indicators/crude-production-national. Last updated . Carry the evidence state with any figure you quote.

Methodology · Sources · Corrections — if a record here is wrong, the corrections log is where it is fixed in public.