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Strategic Systems Intelligence · SSIP

White Maize 50kg Wholesale Price (Konyo Konyo Market) rose 16.9% to 138,000 SSP / 50kg bag

White Maize 50kg Wholesale Price (Konyo Konyo Market) moved from 118,000 to 138,000 SSP / 50kg bag between 2025-03-31 and 2025-09-30.

Significant · Measured change · confidence SUPPORTED · evidence state ANNOUNCED

Before and after

Previous
118000 SSP / 50kg bag
Current
138000 SSP / 50kg bag
Absolute change
20000 SSP / 50kg bag
Percentage
+16.9%

Baseline: The preceding measurement in the same published series: 118,000 SSP / 50kg bag as of 2025-03-31, sourced to Chamber of Commerce (Post-harvest Equatoria crop eased peak pressure.).

Timing

Baseline dated
2025-03-31
Observed
2025-09-30
Effective
2025-09-30
Published by the source
2025-09-30
Detected by SSIP
2026-09-20
Verified
not yet reviewed

A source publishing today may describe something that happened months earlier. These dates are kept apart for that reason.

Why it matters

baseline strength (TIMESERIES_POINT (rank 5/5)) and magnitude (16.9% move) put this in the significant band. 1 entity is named in the change itself, and 6 more are reachable through documented relationships — reachable, which is not the same as affected.

How significant, and why

Score 52. Bands: HIGH_IMPACT ≥ 70 · SIGNIFICANT ≥ 45 · NOTABLE ≥ 25 · ROUTINE ≥ 0.

  • +12 Magnitude — 16.9% move. A larger move is harder to absorb and harder to explain away as measurement noise.
  • +9 Evidence state — ANNOUNCED. A well-evidenced change deserves more attention than a weakly evidenced one of the same size. Size without evidence is noise.
  • +15 Baseline strength — TIMESERIES_POINT (rank 5/5). How defensible the comparison is. A change measured against a published prior measurement is worth more than one computed from a percentage.
  • +4 Directly affected entities — 1 entity named in the change. Entities the change is about, not merely near.
  • +1 Connected entities — 6 reachable within one relationship. Reach through documented relationships. Weighted lightly on purpose: connection is not impact.
  • +8 Dependency centrality — 41 relationships on the primary entity. A change at a well-connected entity has more routes to travel along.
  • +3 Geographic scope — 1 jurisdiction(s). A change touching more jurisdictions affects more of the country.
  • +0 Recency — 355 day(s) old. Old changes are history rather than intelligence. Age is penalised, not hidden.

What caused it

Associated change — Automotive Gasoil (Diesel) - Commercial Bulk Depot Rate up 4.8% over 30 days

Another recorded change (chg-0021) moved in the same direction in the same category, from a different dataset. SSIP records the association. It does not know whether either drove the other, whether both follow from something else, or whether the timing is coincidence.

What else could explain it: Both movements may follow from a common driver SSIP does not hold. The two observations may share an upstream source despite different dataset ids.

Two changes are related through a documented relationship in the knowledge graph. Association, not explanation.

Who and what is affected

Directly affected

Connected

Juba County · Yei River County · Kajo-Keji County · Terekeka County · Morobo County · Lainya County

Connection is reach through a recorded relationship. It is not impact.

First-order effects

  • Insufficient evidence — SSIP cannot say who is affected by this change through Central Equatoria.
    White Maize 50kg Wholesale Price (Konyo Konyo Market) rose 16.9% to 138,000 SSP / 50kg bag → Central Equatoria → (no relationship that transmits an effect)
    6 entities are recorded against Central Equatoria, but only through relationships that place them there — being in the same jurisdiction or sector is proximity, not exposure. SSIP holds no record of who is exposed to this change.

What to watch next

Observable indicators, not predictions.

  • The next market survey for the same item — Confirms whether the move persisted. (SSIP cost benchmarks and temporal observations)
  • Corridor freight cost for the same period — Transport cost is a documented input to delivered price. (SSIP cost benchmarks)

Evidence and confidence

Confidence: SUPPORTED. Evidence records: ev-00427. Datasets: national.temporalObservations.

  • Raises — Baseline: The preceding measurement in the same published series: 118,000 SSP / 50kg bag as of 2025-03-31, sourced to Chamber of Commerce (Post-harvest Equatoria crop eased peak pressure.).
  • Raises — Source attribution: Evidence record ev-00427, attributed to FAO / WFP VAM.
  • Neutral — Recency: Observed 2025-09-30, 355 day(s) before detection.

What would change this assessment: A second independent source reporting the same movement. Review by a named analyst.

Limitations

  • A measured movement between two dates. It does not establish what drove the movement.
  • A causal assessment of associated change is the highest rung SSIP reaches without a human review. It is not a finding that anything caused this.

How to read this

Every figure on this page carries an evidence state — Verified, Operational, Announced, Estimated, Inferred, Disputed, Simulated, Reference or Unavailable — and each state has a stated definition. SSIP does not present an estimate as an observation, and it does not record a missing value as zero.

Read the methodology · Open the evidence ledger · See declared gaps

Related

All recorded changes · Change intelligence · Knowledge graph · Evidence ledger

Cite, check and correct

Cite as: “White Maize 50kg Wholesale Price (Konyo Konyo Market) rose 16.9% to 138,000 SSP / 50kg bag”. Strategic Systems Intelligence. https://ssintelligence.online/changes/white-maize-50kg-wholesale-price-konyo-konyo-market-rose-16-chg-0013. Last updated . Carry the evidence state with any figure you quote.

Methodology · Sources · Corrections — if a record here is wrong, the corrections log is where it is fixed in public.