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Strategic Systems Intelligence · SSIP

Western Equatoria Maize & Cassava Early Harvest Inflow Drops Juba Wholesale Cereal Prices by 6%

First cooperative grain convoys from Yambio and Nzara arrived at Konyo-Konyo and Custom Markets in Juba, delivering 420 metric tons of freshly harvested white maize and dried cassava chips.

Notable · Measured change · confidence SUPPORTED · evidence state ANNOUNCED

Before and after

Previous
168000
Current
158000
Absolute change
-10000
Percentage
-6%

Baseline: The record states the prior value alongside the new one: 168,000 before, 158,000 after, per Ministry of Agriculture Crop Assessment Report, Western Equatoria Cooperative Union Sales Ledger.

Timing

Baseline dated
not recorded
Observed
2026-08-26
Effective
not recorded
Published by the source
2026-08-26
Detected by SSIP
2026-09-20
Verified
not yet reviewed

A source publishing today may describe something that happened months earlier. These dates are kept apart for that reason.

Why it matters

baseline strength (SOURCE_DECLARED_PRIOR (rank 4/5)) and evidence state (ANNOUNCED) put this in the notable band.

How significant, and why

Score 35. Bands: HIGH_IMPACT ≥ 70 · SIGNIFICANT ≥ 45 · NOTABLE ≥ 25 · ROUTINE ≥ 0.

  • +6 Magnitude — 6% move. A larger move is harder to absorb and harder to explain away as measurement noise.
  • +9 Evidence state — ANNOUNCED. A well-evidenced change deserves more attention than a weakly evidenced one of the same size. Size without evidence is noise.
  • +12 Baseline strength — SOURCE_DECLARED_PRIOR (rank 4/5). How defensible the comparison is. A change measured against a published prior measurement is worth more than one computed from a percentage.
  • +0 Directly affected entities — 0 entities named in the change. Entities the change is about, not merely near.
  • +0 Connected entities — 0 reachable within one relationship. Reach through documented relationships. Weighted lightly on purpose: connection is not impact.
  • +8 Recency — 25 day(s) old. Old changes are history rather than intelligence. Age is penalised, not hidden.

What caused it

Associated change — Deformed High-Yield Rebar (12mm TMT, per Metric Ton) down 0.8% over 30 days

Another recorded change (chg-0024) moved in the same direction in the same category, from a different dataset. SSIP records the association. It does not know whether either drove the other, whether both follow from something else, or whether the timing is coincidence.

What else could explain it: Both movements may follow from a common driver SSIP does not hold. The two observations may share an upstream source despite different dataset ids.

Two changes are related through a documented relationship in the knowledge graph. Association, not explanation.

Who and what is affected

Directly affected

No entity is named in the change itself.

Connected

Nothing is reachable through a documented relationship.

Connection is reach through a recorded relationship. It is not impact.

First-order effects

None traced.

What to watch next

Observable indicators, not predictions.

  • The next market survey for the same item — Confirms whether the move persisted. (SSIP cost benchmarks and temporal observations)
  • Corridor freight cost for the same period — Transport cost is a documented input to delivered price. (SSIP cost benchmarks)

Evidence and confidence

Confidence: SUPPORTED. Evidence records: ev-00439. Datasets: product.changes.

  • Raises — Baseline: The record states the prior value alongside the new one: 168,000 before, 158,000 after, per Ministry of Agriculture Crop Assessment Report, Western Equatoria Cooperative Union Sales Ledger.
  • Raises — Source attribution: Evidence record ev-00439, attributed to Ministry of Agriculture Crop Assessment Report, Western Equatoria Cooperative Union Sales Ledger.
  • Raises — Recency: Observed 2026-08-26, 25 day(s) before detection.

The source states a confidence of 92 on a scale of 0–100 as published in the source record, attributed to Ministry of Agriculture Crop Assessment Report, Western Equatoria Cooperative Union Sales Ledger. SSIP reports that number as the source's; it does not produce one of its own.

What would change this assessment: A second independent source reporting the same movement. Review by a named analyst.

Limitations

  • The prior value is the one the record states; SSIP did not independently measure it.
  • The record also carries a projection. It is held as a scenario and is not part of what changed.
  • A causal assessment of associated change is the highest rung SSIP reaches without a human review. It is not a finding that anything caused this.

How to read this

Every figure on this page carries an evidence state — Verified, Operational, Announced, Estimated, Inferred, Disputed, Simulated, Reference or Unavailable — and each state has a stated definition. SSIP does not present an estimate as an observation, and it does not record a missing value as zero.

Read the methodology · Open the evidence ledger · See declared gaps

Related

All recorded changes · Change intelligence · Knowledge graph · Evidence ledger

Cite, check and correct

Cite as: “Western Equatoria Maize & Cassava Early Harvest Inflow Drops Juba Wholesale Cereal Prices ”. Strategic Systems Intelligence. https://ssintelligence.online/changes/western-equatoria-maize-cassava-early-harvest-inflow-drops-j-chg-0019. Last updated . Carry the evidence state with any figure you quote.

Methodology · Sources · Corrections — if a record here is wrong, the corrections log is where it is fixed in public.