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Strategic Systems Intelligence · SSIP

National Crude Oil Production Volume (Dar & Nile Blends) fell 53.1% to 68,000 Barrels per Day (bpd)

National Crude Oil Production Volume (Dar & Nile Blends) moved from 145,000 to 68,000 Barrels per Day (bpd) between 2024-03-31 and 2024-09-30.

Significant · Measured change · confidence SUPPORTED · evidence state ANNOUNCED

Before and after

Previous
145000 Barrels per Day (bpd)
Current
68000 Barrels per Day (bpd)
Absolute change
-77000 Barrels per Day (bpd)
Percentage
-53.1%

Baseline: The preceding measurement in the same published series: 145,000 Barrels per Day (bpd) as of 2024-03-31, sourced to Ministry of Petroleum (Normal operating baseline before Sudan conflict pipeline damage.).

Timing

Baseline dated
2024-03-31
Observed
2024-09-30
Effective
2024-09-30
Published by the source
2024-09-30
Detected by SSIP
2026-09-20
Verified
not yet reviewed

A source publishing today may describe something that happened months earlier. These dates are kept apart for that reason.

Why it matters

magnitude (53.1% move) and baseline strength (TIMESERIES_POINT (rank 5/5)) put this in the significant band. 2 entities are named in the change itself, and 12 more are reachable through documented relationships — reachable, which is not the same as affected.

How significant, and why

Score 70. Bands: HIGH_IMPACT ≥ 70 · SIGNIFICANT ≥ 45 · NOTABLE ≥ 25 · ROUTINE ≥ 0.

  • +25 Magnitude — 53.1% move. A larger move is harder to absorb and harder to explain away as measurement noise.
  • +9 Evidence state — ANNOUNCED. A well-evidenced change deserves more attention than a weakly evidenced one of the same size. Size without evidence is noise.
  • +15 Baseline strength — TIMESERIES_POINT (rank 5/5). How defensible the comparison is. A change measured against a published prior measurement is worth more than one computed from a percentage.
  • +8 Directly affected entities — 2 entities named in the change. Entities the change is about, not merely near.
  • +3 Connected entities — 12 reachable within one relationship. Reach through documented relationships. Weighted lightly on purpose: connection is not impact.
  • +2 Dependency centrality — 13 relationships on the primary entity. A change at a well-connected entity has more routes to travel along.
  • +8 Infrastructure relevance — ENERGY. Infrastructure, energy, telecoms and corridor conditions are inputs to most other activity.
  • +6 Geographic scope — 2 jurisdiction(s). A change touching more jurisdictions affects more of the country.
  • -6 Recency — 720 day(s) old. Old changes are history rather than intelligence. Age is penalised, not hidden.

High impact requires a baseline of rank 4 or better, a VERIFIED or OPERATIONAL evidence state, and CONFIRMED or SUPPORTED confidence. This change has baseline rank 5, state ANNOUNCED and confidence SUPPORTED.

What caused it

Possible mechanism — Crude Oil Pipeline Pumping Interruption (Sudan)

SSIP holds a recorded mechanism in this domain: "Crude Oil Pipeline Pumping Interruption (Sudan)", with a stated lag of 4 to 7 Days (Escrow account receipt lag). That describes how the two could be connected. It is not evidence that they are connected here, and the source's own "CONFIRMED_CAUSAL" label is not carried across.

What else could explain it: Global Brent crude spot price fluctuations BoSS FX emergency credit lines

A reasoned hypothesis with its confounders stated. It explains how the two *could* be connected, and is never rendered as a finding.

Who and what is affected

Directly affected

Connected

Rubkona County · Guit County · Koch County · Leer County · Mayendit County · Panyijiar County · Malakal County · Renk County · Melut County · Maban County · Fashoda County · Manyo County

Connection is reach through a recorded relationship. It is not impact.

First-order effects

  • Insufficient evidence — SSIP cannot say who is affected by this change through Unity.
    National Crude Oil Production Volume (Dar & Nile Blends) fell 53.1% to 68,000 Barrels per Day (bpd) → Unity → (no relationship that transmits an effect)
    6 entities are recorded against Unity, but only through relationships that place them there — being in the same jurisdiction or sector is proximity, not exposure. SSIP holds no record of who is exposed to this change.
  • Insufficient evidence — SSIP cannot say who is affected by this change through Upper Nile.
    National Crude Oil Production Volume (Dar & Nile Blends) fell 53.1% to 68,000 Barrels per Day (bpd) → Upper Nile → (no relationship that transmits an effect)
    6 entities are recorded against Upper Nile, but only through relationships that place them there — being in the same jurisdiction or sector is proximity, not exposure. SSIP holds no record of who is exposed to this change.

What to watch next

Observable indicators, not predictions.

  • The next production measurement — Confirms whether the movement held. (SSIP temporal observations)
  • Transit or pipeline status reported by a named source — Export capacity constrains production. Not currently observable: SSIP holds transit status only when a record states it.

Evidence and confidence

Confidence: SUPPORTED. Evidence records: ev-00411. Datasets: national.temporalObservations.

  • Raises — Baseline: The preceding measurement in the same published series: 145,000 Barrels per Day (bpd) as of 2024-03-31, sourced to Ministry of Petroleum (Normal operating baseline before Sudan conflict pipeline damage.).
  • Raises — Source attribution: Evidence record ev-00411, attributed to MoP / Consortium Telemetry.
  • Lowers — Recency: Observed 2024-09-30, 720 day(s) before detection.

What would change this assessment: A second independent source reporting the same movement. Review by a named analyst.

Limitations

  • A measured movement between two dates. It does not establish what drove the movement.
  • A causal assessment of possible mechanism is the highest rung SSIP reaches without a human review. It is not a finding that anything caused this.

How to read this

Every figure on this page carries an evidence state — Verified, Operational, Announced, Estimated, Inferred, Disputed, Simulated, Reference or Unavailable — and each state has a stated definition. SSIP does not present an estimate as an observation, and it does not record a missing value as zero.

Read the methodology · Open the evidence ledger · See declared gaps

Related

All recorded changes · Change intelligence · Knowledge graph · Evidence ledger

Cite, check and correct

Cite as: “National Crude Oil Production Volume (Dar & Nile Blends) fell 53.1% to 68,000 Barrels per ”. Strategic Systems Intelligence. https://ssintelligence.online/changes/national-crude-oil-production-volume-dar-nile-blends-fell-53-chg-0006. Last updated . Carry the evidence state with any figure you quote.

Methodology · Sources · Corrections — if a record here is wrong, the corrections log is where it is fixed in public.